Broker Check

Mosaic Asset Partners - A Year-End Rally Stays on the Table

December 01, 2023

It’s no secret that August, September, and October were rough months in the market. November brought back sunnier (and cooler) days which helped to ease some concerns as the broader markets closed significantly higher. While we are still a bit off from the yearly highs made in late July, there is some comfort in seeing the buying activity resume. Deep breaths people!

With one month left in the year, the “Santa Claus” rally still looks to be intact for now. What has helped to propel things forward has been the continued resiliency and strength of spending by businesses, which honestly, is a little baffling. The Commerce Department released the 3rd quarter GDP report on Wednesday that showed the U.S. economy grew at an even faster rate than previously suggested. This was due to more government expenditure and better-than-expected business investment. The investment spending by businesses can be somewhat tied to what consumers are doing and even perhaps alleviate fears that any recession occurring in early 2024 will be short lived and shallow in nature.

Another closely monitored inflation gauge, the PCE Index (personal consumption expenditures), was also released this week. According to the data released on Thursday, inflation as gauged by consumer spending rose in October in line with forecasts, perhaps providing the Federal Reserve with greater motivation to maintain current rates and potentially begin lowering them in 2024. The statement by the Commerce Department also revealed that headline inflation was flat for the month and 3% for the previous 12 months. Food costs rose by 0.2%, but energy prices decreased by 2.6% during the course of the month, contributing to a reduction in overall inflation. Personal income and spending both rose 0.2% for the month, meeting estimates and further indicating that consumers are keeping pace with inflation. Slower spending growth is occurring which aligns with the Fed’s goal of cooling the economy and thus lowering inflation. December is always a challenging month for consumers’ wallets but if the “trends” hold true, we are indeed on the right path.

We are always intrigued by global politics as they play a significant role in how our own U.S. economy is shaped in many ways. Even though we, the U.S., have put more emphasis on manufacturing and relying on our own internal resources, we will always have a major role to play from an importing and exporting perspective. To that end, a healthy and robust global economy will always play a vital role in our success. I’ve included a link to a PDF below that is a weekly economic piece from an investment manager and economist we follow from FirstTrust. It is an interesting piece that primarily discusses the recent elections in Argentina; I invite you to read it. It is an interesting look into what many are calling a potentially pivotal change in the political and economic landscape for South America. Argentina is not alone in some of these more radical moves taking place globally and possibly is an early indicator into the direction certain parts of the world are taking. While the broader, international landscape has struggled from an investment standpoint, there could be glimmers of hope on the horizon.

Now that the Turkey has been digested, we turn our attention towards year-end plans and holiday festivities. There is no question we will all remain busy in the weeks ahead. Just remember to take some time for you and your loved ones between all the celebrations!

First Trust - Argentina Article

Christopher E. Wasson, CFP®


Mosaic Asset Partners, LLC

1122 Kenilworth Drive, Suite 310

Towson, MD  21204

410.821.0089         fax 410.821.5993  

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS), an affiliate of Kestra IS. Mosaic Asset Partners, LLC is not affiliated with Kestra IS or Kestra AS.  Investor Disclosures:

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra IS or Kestra AS. The material is for informational purposes only. It represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. It is not guaranteed by Kestra IS or Kestra AS for accuracy, does not purport to be complete and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions. It should also not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.