Broker Check

Mosaic Asset Partners- Earnings, Earnings, Everywhere!

July 21, 2023

It has been a bit quieter this week as summer vacation season kicks into high gear. We have grown accustomed to seeing slower activity in late July through August but even the slightest headline can change that quickly. With the Federal Reserve set to meet next week, expectations remain that one more interest rate increase will occur before hopefully concluding this monetary policy cycle. Chairman Powell, as usual, will hold a post meeting question and answer press conference where the rhetoric he uses will be closely watched. He is known for using specific language indicating which direction the monetary policy makers are leaning. This will be significant in indicating if they believe they have achieved their stated objectives. Bringing the inflationary levels down to an acceptable level has been the primary goal along with stable unemployment and a moderated growth in the GDP numbers. From my perspective, they have achieved what is needed to land us in a safe place moving forward, while avoiding a recession.  Once we get past this meeting next week, the economic forecasters and the Fed will have nearly two months of additional data to digest before the next meeting. That may indeed be enough time to “set the table” and allow the Fed to satisfy their goals.

This has been a big week for corporate earnings. Thus far the results have been more mixed than I think many had been expecting. Seventy-three percent of S&P 500 companies that have already reported have exceeded analysts’ expectations, according to FactSet data. However, that “beat” rate is below a three-year average of 80%, according to The Earnings Scout. Perhaps this is yet another needed sign of a slowing economy and playing into the idea of the Federal Reserve nearing a true conclusion. With 2023 coming out of the gates stronger than anticipated, it would be normal to see some pullback in the weeks ahead as people shift their attention to other things (like vacation!). We still have plenty of the largest S&P 500 companies yet to report their earnings, so it is a little premature to know if the momentum has indeed shifted or not. We shall be watching for any clues!

Many of us are preparing for much needed breaks (myself included) from the day to day schedules we keep. It is important to recharge your batteries, take perspective, and rest for a bit. In my household, we are preparing to not only send our oldest son back to college, but our middle guy will be out the door as well in a few short weeks. We will be down to one left at home! My, what will I do with all that extra time?? I will miss them both very much, but that is life and what we have been preparing for. Having a plan and seeing it come to fruition is the real reward. Just remember to enjoy the ride!  

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/20/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/18/goldman-sachs-cuts-odds-of-a-us-recession-in-the-next-year.html´╗┐

Christopher E. WassonCFP®

President

 Mosaic Asset Partners, LLC

                 1122 Kenilworth Drive, Suite 310

                 Towson, MD  21204

                 410.821.0089         fax 410.821.5993

                 MosaicAssetPartners.com  

                 

Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS), an affiliate of Kestra IS. Mosaic Asset Partners, LLC is not affiliated with Kestra IS or Kestra AS.  Investor Disclosures: https://www.kestrafinancial.com/disclosures

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra IS or Kestra AS. The material is for informational purposes only. It represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. It is not guaranteed by Kestra IS or Kestra AS for accuracy, does not purport to be complete and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions. It should also not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.