Before we dive in, Sunday is Mother’s Day. Few people shape who we become more than the women who raised us, guided us, and believed in us. To every mother and mother figure being celebrated this weekend, we hope you feel every bit of the love and appreciation you deserve! Happy Mother’s Day!
It was a week that had everything: record highs, a Fed decision, renewed military strikes, peace rumors, and a jobs report that beat expectations by a wide margin. When the dust settled on Friday, the S&P 500 was sitting near all-time highs, oil had fallen sharply from its recent peaks, and investors were cautiously optimistic that a resolution to the Iran conflict might finally be within reach. The index touched a fresh intraday record of 7,365 on Wednesday before pulling back slightly. Volatility was the story of the week: Monday brought a 550-point drop in the Dow on war concerns and rising oil, but stocks rebounded sharply on Tuesday and Wednesday as peace signals emerged and earnings continued to impress.
The week’s most encouraging data point came Friday morning when the Labor Department reported that the economy added 115,000 jobs in April, well above the Wall Street consensus of around 62,000 and nearly double what many economists had feared given the uncertainty created by the Iran conflict. Friday’s jobs number delivered exactly the kind of positive surprise that keeps investors confident. The gains were led by healthcare, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade. Federal government employment continued its decline, falling by 9,000 jobs. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. It was the second consecutive monthly increase in employment and the first back-to-back gain in nearly a year, a signal that the labor market, while cooling, is not breaking. However, I will note that the full effect of higher energy prices has not played out in the labor market. Companies are typically hiring months in advance, which means any big shift in their decision-making will show up in the data months later. This is something we will need to pay close attention to.
The Iran situation remains the great unknown hanging over this market, and this week was again another reminder of just how fast the story can change. Early in the week, oil surged past $106 a barrel after Iran fired on U.S. warships in the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. military destroyed six Iranian small boats in retaliation. Then on Wednesday, Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran were nearing a framework agreement that would include a moratorium on nuclear enrichment. The S&P 500 jumped 1.46% on the news, oil fell sharply, and energy stocks were the only sector to finish in the red on the day. By Thursday, however, oil had partially rebounded as President Trump warned Iran to sign a deal “fast” or face much more severe military action, tempering some of the optimism. As of Friday, the ceasefire technically remains in place, but the situation is fragile. WTI crude settled around $94–97 a barrel, still elevated, but down meaningfully from the week’s highs. Every dollar oil falls is a dollar in the direction of lower inflation, lower gas prices, and eventually, room for the Fed to cut rates.
Interesting to Note
The AMD story this week deserves a mention. Shares of the chipmaker soared more than 18% after the company reported first-quarter results that beat both revenue and earnings and issued second-quarter guidance well above expectations. The semiconductor sector broadly surged, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF jumping 5% on Wednesday alone. It is a useful reminder that the AI buildout story is not just about the five mega-cap tech companies that reported last week, it runs deep into the supply chain. Meanwhile, Apple hit a new all-time high of $290.33 intraday on Thursday, its first record close since December 2025, continuing its remarkable run since the strong earnings report two weeks ago.
Looking Ahead
- April CPI — May 12: The first major inflation reading of the second quarter arrives Tuesday. With energy prices still elevated and the Fed deeply divided, this report carries more weight than usual. A softer-than-expected number could reignite rate cut expectations. A hotter reading could push rate hike odds higher and rattle bond markets.
- Retail Sales — May 14: With gas prices still averaging above $4 nationally and consumer confidence under pressure from the war, retail sales will give us the first real read on whether the American consumer, specifically lower-income families, is starting to pull back. Consumer spending is the engine of this economy, and any sign of meaningful slowing would be a significant development.
Have a wonderful weekend. In many ways, this week was a microcosm of the entire year so far: resilient markets, strong underlying economic data, and a geopolitical situation that can move everything in a single headline. We remain focused on the things that matter most: your financial plan, your long-term goals, and making sure the noise of the moment does not distract from what we are trying to build together. As always, do not hesitate to reach out.
Written by: Steven C. Dengler, CFP®
Sources
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/07/iran-war-hormuz-strait-ceasefire-trump.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/05/amd-q1-2026-earnings-report.html
https://www.axios.com/2026/05/06/iran-us-deal-one-page-memo
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