The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady this week for a fifth straight meeting, keeping its benchmark rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. The vote wasn’t unanimous: three members pushed for a rate increase instead, the first time in nearly a decade a group of policymakers has openly favored raising rates. Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed is moving away from previewing where rates are headed next, preferring to let incoming data guide each decision. He pointed to a still-solid economy and uncertainty tied to the Middle East as reasons to stay patient. The Fed’s next meeting isn’t until mid-September, but oddsmakers have a ¼ point rate increase pegged at a 53% – 57% probability as of now.
It was also a marquee week for Big Tech earnings, with six of the seven “Magnificent Seven” companies having now reported this season:
Alphabet (GOOGL) – Beat revenue estimates, but shares fell after the company raised its 2026 capex plans from $195 billion to $205 billion.
Tesla (TSLA) – Also beat revenue estimates, but profit missed as capital spending more than doubled from a year ago.
Microsoft (MSFT) – A blowout quarter: Azure grew 43%, full-year cloud revenue topped $100 billion for the first time, and shares jumped.
Meta (META) – Beat on revenue, but missed on profit as heavy AI spending pressured margins, and the stock fell.
Apple (AAPL) – Beat expectations across the board, with record services revenue, in Tim Cook’s final earnings call as CEO.
Amazon (AMZN) – AWS growth accelerated again, sending shares up nearly 5%, the best reception of the week.
Nvidia is the only one left to report. The pattern continues to hold so far. Investors are rewarding AI spending that’s already showing up as revenue and pushing back where the payoff still feels like a promise.
This week’s economic data added helpful context to the volatility we have been seeing as of late. The government’s first estimate of second-quarter growth (GDP) came in at 1.5%, weaker than expected and down from the first quarter’s 2.1%. This is largely due to a wider trade deficit tied to AI-related imports, even as consumer spending held up well. Separately, June’s PCE inflation reading came in at 3.7% year-over-year on the headline number, with core PCE (which strips out food and energy) at 3.3%, both in line with expectations. Personal income rose a modest 0.2% for the month. With vacations now in full swing, August could prove to be an interesting month.
Interesting to Note
Closer to home, this week marked the annual Chincoteague Pony Swim, when the wild ponies of Assateague Island are herded across the channel to Chincoteague, Virginia, as they have for nearly a century. Their origin is still debated: legend says they descended from Spanish shipwreck survivors, though most historians think colonial farmers grazed them there to dodge mainland taxes. Either way, the herds still roam the Maryland-Virginia line today.
Looking Ahead
The July jobs report arrives next Friday, August 7th, giving markets a fresh read on hiring and wages ahead of the Fed’s September meeting.
The Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium runs August 27th-29th, where Chair Warsh will deliver his first keynote address since taking the helm.
Have a nice weekend!
Written by: Chris Wasson, CFP®
Sources: Advisor Perspectives – Fed’s Interest Rate Decision, July 29 | Fox Business – July FOMC: Fed Holds Rates Steady | 24/7 Wall St – Post-Earnings Clarity: Microsoft and Meta | TradingKey – Amazon Stock Moves Up on Earnings, July 30 | Eastern Herald – Apple Q3 2026 Earnings Beat, Cook’s Final Call | NBC News – Q2 GDP Growth Slowed | BEA – GDP (Advance Estimate) and Personal Income, Q2 2026 | Maryland DNR – Wild Ponies of Assateague Island
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