It was a tale of two stories this week. On one hand, corporate earnings kept rolling in strong — over 80% of S&P 500 companies reporting so far have beaten expectations, and the index hit a fresh all-time high on Wednesday. Tech and semiconductor stocks led the charge, with Texas Instruments surging 19% on blowout results and Intel jumping another 19% overnight Thursday after its own earnings beat. On the other hand, the market pulled back Thursday as oil prices spiked again, and investors were reminded that the war in Iran has not gone away. The week’s bottom line: stocks remain resilient, but the Iran conflict continues to cast a shadow over the outlook.
The economic data this week told a similar two-sided story. Consumers are still spending. March retail sales came in well above expectations, and the job market remains relatively healthy with weekly unemployment claims holding at a comfortable 214,000. That said, a quiet wave of layoff announcements ran alongside this week’s market action. Meta confirmed it is cutting roughly 8,000 jobs, about 10% of its workforce, while Microsoft offered buyouts to about 7% of its workforce. It’s a pattern that’s becoming common in tech: record profits and pink slips arriving at the same time, as companies trim headcount to fund massive investments in artificial intelligence. So far, those cuts haven’t shown up in the broader jobs numbers in a meaningful way, but it is worth watching. Meanwhile, consumer confidence hit a record low of 47.6 in April — the worst reading in the survey’s 74-year history, as Americans cited rising gas prices and war anxiety. The gap between what people are doing (spending) and how they are feeling (worried) is one of the more unusual features of this economy right now.
The Iran war remains the single biggest variable in the economic picture. A ceasefire is technically in place, but it seems to be more of a standoff as peace talks have broken down several times. Brent crude oil jumped back above $105 a barrel this week. Gas prices nationally are averaging $4.05 per gallon, and analysts say relief below $3.00 is likely still a year away. Separately, the President’s nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, faced his Senate confirmation hearing this week. He pledged independence from political pressure and laid out plans for significant changes at the Fed, if confirmed. His path forward is currently blocked by a Republican senator, leaving the question of future Fed leadership unresolved for now.
Interesting to Note
The last time consumer confidence was this low was June 2022 — right in the middle of the post-pandemic inflation surge. Back then, many investors feared the worst. The S&P 500 went on to nearly double over the next three years. How people feel about the economy and what the economy actually does are often very different stories. That doesn’t mean we ignore the warning signs, but it is a good reminder that fear, and headlines, rarely tell the whole story.
Looking Ahead
- Iran — Still the #1 Watch Item: The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal tanker traffic. Any credible progress toward a peace deal would send oil prices sharply lower — a big positive for inflation and consumer confidence.
- Earnings Season Peaks — Week of April 27: Apple, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet all report next week. These five companies carry enormous weight in the S&P 500, so their results and outlooks will set the tone for the market heading into May.
- Q1 GDP — April 30: The government’s first estimate of economic growth for the first quarter arrives Wednesday. It will give us the clearest early picture of how the economy was performing before the full impact of the Iran war set in.
- Fed Chair Nomination: Kevin Warsh’s confirmation remains in limbo. The outcome matters for long-term interest rates and the direction of monetary policy affects everything from your mortgage to your interest bearing investments.
Have a nice weekend! I am on my way to Spain to see our middle son who has been studying abroad. It will be a nice change of scenery!
Written By: Christopher E. Wasson, CFP®
Sources:
TheStreet: Stock Market Today — April 23, 2026
Yahoo Finance: Earnings live updates — Tesla, TSMC, United Airlines
Bloomberg: US Jobless Claims Rise to 214,000
Fortune: Consumer Sentiment Hits All-Time Low at 47.6
CNBC: Brent tops $103 with Hormuz shipping still disrupted
NPR: 3 takeaways from Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing
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