We are closing out a truly historic week, and the biggest news arrived just this morning. Iran’s Foreign Minister announced that the Strait of Hormuz is now completely open to commercial shipping for the duration of the ceasefire. Oil prices dropped more than 10% immediately on the news, with Brent crude falling below $90 a barrel, and U.S. stock markets opened at new all-time highs. This is the development that investors and economists have been waiting for since the war began in late February. To put it simply: the world’s most important oil shipping lane, which had been largely closed for nearly seven weeks, is back open. There are still important things to watch: Iran says ships must use a “coordinated route,” and President Trump said the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports will stay in place until a full peace deal is signed, but the market’s reaction today tells you how significant this moment is.
While all eyes were on the Middle East, Wall Street delivered a blockbuster earnings week. All six of the country’s largest banks-Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley-beat expectations across the board. Morgan Stanley crossed $20 billion in quarterly revenue for the very first time. Bank of America raised its profit outlook for the full year. Goldman Sachs posted record equities trading revenue. The common theme: the market turbulence caused by the Iran conflict impacted Wall Street’s trading desks, which thrive on volatility. JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon delivered strong numbers but struck a cautious tone, warning of “increasingly complex” global risks. His message of a great quarter, but an uncertain road ahead, is probably the right way for all of us to think about where things stand heading into next week.
On the economic data front, two readings rounded out the week. The Producer Price Index, which measures what businesses pay before those costs reach consumers, came in at 4.0% higher than a year ago, the biggest jump since early 2023. But nearly all of that increase was driven by energy costs from the Iran conflict, not broader economic pressure. Strip out energy, and underlying inflation eased. That is an important distinction, and this morning’s Hormuz news could take a lot of that energy pressure off the table quickly as oil flows resume. On the housing front, March existing home sales fell about 6% from the prior month, continuing a choppy pattern driven by tight inventory and war-related mortgage rate increases. Affordability has been improving, but supply remains the core constraint. If oil prices continue to fall from here, mortgage rates should follow, which would be a genuine tailwind for housing in the months ahead.
Interesting to Note
This morning is a good reminder of just how fast things can change in today’s markets. Oil fell more than 10% in a matter of minutes. Stocks opened at all-time highs. Bond yields dropped. All from a single social media post by Iran’s Foreign Minister. The speed of information, and the speed of market reactions to it, is unlike anything we’ve seen in previous geopolitical crises. For clients, the lesson is to stay patient and not make big moves based on any single day’s headlines, in either direction.
Looking Ahead
- Peace Deal Negotiations: The ceasefire expires Tuesday, April 21. Trump says negotiations “should go very quickly” now that the strait is open. Watch for whether a full peace framework is agreed upon or the ceasefire is extended. A signed deal would be a major positive catalyst for markets and meaningful relief for inflation.
- Will Oil Keep Falling?: Brent crude dropped below $90 this morning. The pre-war price was around $64. How quickly tankers actually start moving through the strait and whether Iran’s “coordinated route” requirement adds friction will determine how fast energy prices normalize. Gas prices at the pump will lag by a few weeks.
- Inflation Watch CPI Coming: With PPI driven by energy and the Hormuz situation now shifting, the upcoming Consumer Price Index report becomes even more important as a read on whether broader inflation pressures were building or whether energy was the whole story.
- The Fed’s New Math: Markets had priced in zero rate cuts for 2026 because of energy-driven inflation. If oil continues to fall meaningfully, that calculus could shift, and rate cut expectations could start creeping back. Watch for Fed speakers commenting on the Hormuz development.
- Earnings Season Continues: Next week brings another strong lineup of corporate earnings. If the last week or two shows us anything, it’s that corporate profits, in general, remain robust.
Written by: Christopher E. Wasson, CFP®
Sources:
NBC News: Oil plunges, stocks surge after Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open
NBC News Live Updates: Iran declares Hormuz open, Trump blockade continues
Reuters: Global markets surge as Iran says Strait of Hormuz open during ceasefire
CNBC: JPMorgan tops estimates, Dimon flags complex risks
CNBC: Goldman Sachs tops estimates on record equities trading
BLS: Producer Price Indexes – March 2026
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Receded 5.9% in March
Time: IMF warns of global recession risk from Iran war
Securities offered through Kestra Investment Services, LLC (Kestra IS), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Kestra Advisory Services, LLC (Kestra AS), an affiliate of Kestra IS. Mosaic Asset Partners, LLC is not affiliated with Kestra IS or Kestra AS. Investor Disclosures: https://www.kestrafinancial.com/disclosures
The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra IS or Kestra AS. The material is for informational purposes only. It represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. It is not guaranteed by Kestra IS or Kestra AS for accuracy, does not purport to be complete, and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions. It should also not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.
