Today marks 25 years since the September 11th attacks on our country. Before we get into this week’s numbers, it’s worth pausing for a moment of reflection. September 11th is a day that’s likely stayed with many of us in its own way — where we were, who we called, how different the world felt by that evening. But many of us also came away from that day feeling more unified as a nation, brought together by a moment of grief and tragedy. Resiliency has always been a benchmark by which countries are measured, and I like to hold onto the belief that this remains a country that can prove its resolve, even when tested at the highest level. We are stronger when we are together, and sometimes we all need that reminder. On to the news of the week.
Inflation was the headline story again, and it wasn’t the news we were hoping for. Wednesday’s Producer Price Index, which tracks what businesses pay before those costs get passed on to the rest of us, rose 0.4% in August, pushing the annual rate up to 5.4% from 4.8% the month before. Then Friday’s Consumer Price Index came in at 3.4% year-over-year, matching expectations on the surface, but the core reading, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% for the month — more than nearly every economist had penciled in. A good chunk of the increase came straight from the gas pump, where prices jumped almost 4% in August alone. Two hot readings in a row is exactly the kind of data the Fed didn’t want to see heading into next week’s meeting (more on that below).
Housing told a similar story. Existing-home sales slipped 2% in August to their slowest pace since June 2025, as elevated mortgage rates keep more buyers on the sidelines. There’s a silver lining, though — inventory climbed to its highest level in over a decade, so the buyers who are out there have more to choose from and a bit more leverage at the negotiating table. Home prices are still creeping higher, up 1.6% from a year ago, helped along by slow, yet steady, job growth.
Rounding things out, oil prices are back in the headlines. Brent crude broke back above $100 a barrel this week for the first time since July, as renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important oil shipping lanes in the world, rattled markets. When a chokepoint like that comes under threat, prices tend to move fast, and it’s probably no coincidence that gas was such a big driver of Friday’s inflation number. This is worth keeping an eye on as we head into Fall. Our markets remain in a more volatile position right now as evidenced this week. Now it’s up to the Federal Reserve to try and reel things back in.
Interesting to Note
If you’ve been enjoying these “slightly” cooler evenings, keep looking up as you venture outdoors. September brings the Harvest Moon and the start of meteor shower season. Venus will be especially bright after sunset over the next few weeks. The autumnal equinox arrives later this month, officially kicking off fall — as if the pumpkin spice lattes hadn’t already made that clear!
Looking Ahead
• Fed meeting (Sept. 15–16): This week’s hotter-than-expected inflation data raised the odds of the Fed’s first rate hike since Kevin Warsh took over as chair. Futures markets are now pricing in roughly a 90% chance of a quarter-point hike, up sharply from well below 50% just a few weeks ago. Warsh has said the Fed still has “work to do” on inflation, but the committee remains divided, and a softer labor market report could still tip things toward holding steady. We’ll be watching closely and will follow up as soon as the decision is announced.
Have a nice weekend!
Chris Wasson, CFP®
