September’s jobs report, released this morning, showed hiring has slowed sharply. Employers added just 29,000 jobs, well short of the 84,000 economists expected, while the unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2%. Job gains for July and August were also revised lower by a combined 60,000, and wage growth slowed to 3% over the past year. The weak number was a surprise after steadier reports earlier in the week, including ADP’s count of 90,000 private jobs and weekly jobless claims of just 197,000. It does line up with how people feel, though. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 81.9 in September, its lowest level since 2014, with high gas prices the top complaint. A softer job market potentially gives the Fed some reason to hold off on another rate hike, however investors still expect another increase to take place before year end.
There was better news on inflation this week. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, rose 3.4% year over year for August. This was below the 3.7% economists had expected. Core PCE, which leaves out food and energy, slowed to 3.0% from 3.3% the previous month. Part of the improvement came from the government’s yearly update to how the numbers are calculated, and some economists noted that inflation made little real progress in August. Both readings are still well above the Fed’s 2% goal, and energy costs remained the biggest driver. Meanwhile, consumers continue to spend with that data point jumping 0.9% in August, even though income growth was lighter. It feels like we may finally be at a tipping point, which likely isn’t a bad thing in the current environment.
With the midterm elections about a month away, expect the headlines to get louder. Election seasons bring a lot of talk about the economy, and this year the focus is on everyday issues like gas prices, the cost of living, and jobs. It is natural to wonder how the results could affect taxes, government spending, or interest rates, and some uncertainty is normal until the votes are counted. Keep in mind that the economy is shaped far more by hiring, spending, and inflation than by any single election, and policy changes usually take time to become law. Our approach does not change based on any one outcome. We remain focused on the parts of the plan we can control and continue to look for opportunities or adjustments as needed.
Interesting to Note
Fall color is on its way. Across Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, and nearby states, mid-to-late October is usually the heart of leaf season, with higher mountain areas turning before the valleys. In Maryland, the Catoctin Mountains are expected to peak around October 20, with most of the state following near the end of the month. I am ready for some cooler weather soon!
Looking Ahead
• ISM services report (Oct. 5): A read on the health of the service sector, the largest part of the economy.
• Fed meeting minutes (Oct. 7): Details on the Fed’s thinking behind its September rate hike.
• September CPI (Oct. 14): The next consumer inflation reading, with gas prices in focus.
• Next Fed meeting (Oct. 27–28): How a cooler jobs market impacts the Fed’s near-term thinking.
Enjoy the first weekend of October!
Written by: Chris Wasson, CFP®
Sources:
Yahoo Finance: U.S. September 2026 jobs report: payrolls miss forecasts badly
Benzinga: September Jobs Report Misses: US Economy Adds 29,000 Jobs
CNBC: Fed’s preferred gauge showed core inflation at 3.0% in August, much lighter than expected
CNBC: Private sector jobs rose by 90,000 in September, better than expected, ADP reports
Axios: New 12-year low in consumer confidence
The Conference Board: US Consumer Confidence Fell in September
The Daily Upside: Consumers Aren’t Buying Stable Job Market Data
FXStreet: US Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 197K last week
Farmers’ Almanac: When Will Fall Colors Peak Near Me? See the 2026 Fall Foliage Map
More Than Just Parks: Maryland Fall Foliage Map 2026
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