Existing-home sales gave us a small preview of the housing market before the bigger inflation news hit. The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales fell 1.7% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million, though sales were still up slightly, 0.7%, from a year ago. The median home price climbed to a record $434,100 for the month, and the average 30-year mortgage rate ticked up to 6.54%, the highest level of 2026 so far. It’s a reminder that higher borrowing costs continue to weigh on the pace of home buying, even as prices keep climbing. This is a tough place for all to be in right now and the waiting game has been frustrating.
The bigger story this week was inflation, and it was good news on both fronts. Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July showed prices rose just 0.1% for the month, exactly what economists were looking for, with the annual inflation rate easing to 3.4% from 3.5% in June. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, also matched expectations. Then Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures prices at the wholesale level, came in unchanged for the month, even a touch cooler than economists had penciled in. Markets liked what they saw. The S&P 500 closed at a fresh record Thursday, just shy of the 7,800 mark. Two well-behaved inflation readings in a row may give the Federal Reserve more breathing room to hold interest rates steady rather than raise them at its next meeting.
Friday brought a bit of a reality check on the consumer side. July retail sales fell 0.6% from June, the largest monthly drop in more than a year and well short of the modest gain economists had expected. Even excluding autos and gas, sales still came in softer than forecast. It’s a reminder that, even with inflation cooling and the stock market hitting new highs, household spending isn’t immune to the pressure of a softer job market and elevated borrowing costs. We’ll be watching to see whether this proves to be a one-month blip or the start of a more lasting pullback. The consumer will largely dictate the health of the economy as we move into the Fall season (and cooler weather!).
Interesting to Note
If you’ve noticed blue catfish showing up on menus around Maryland, there’s a good reason for it. The fish is an invasive species in the Chesapeake Bay, competing with crabs, oysters, and other native life, but it also happens to be mild, flaky, and versatile in the kitchen. State and federal programs are now funding processing and distribution to encourage people to eat it, with some of the catch going to food banks across Maryland. It’s a rare case where doing right by the Bay and eating well go hand in hand.
Looking Ahead
- FOMC minutes from the July meeting, due Wednesday, August 19.
- Retail earnings from Target, Walmart, and Home Depot, giving another read on the consumer.
- Ongoing Fed commentary as markets assess the likelihood of a September rate move.
Wishing you a great weekend ahead!
Written By: Chris Wasson, CFP®
Sources
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 1.7% Decrease in July
BLS: Consumer Price Index — July 2026
CNBC: CPI Inflation Report — July 2026
BLS: Producer Price Index News Release — July 2026
Seeking Alpha: PPI Inflation Shows No Change in July Reading
CNBC: S&P 500 Opens Near Records After Mild Inflation Report
CNBC: Stock Market Today, Live Updates — August 13, 2026
Bloomberg: US Retail Sales Fall by the Most in More Than a Year
The Baltimore Banner: Why Invasive, Tasty Blue Catfish Should Be On Your Menu
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